Bush escalates the conflict-With Iran!

The real news in Bush's speech last night was not his declaration, against all reason, that he will escalate his war in Iraq. The real news is that Bush is going to push on the fault lines with Iran and Syria. From the speech;

Succeeding in Iraq also requires defending its territorial integrity - and stabilizing the region in the face of the extremist challenge. This begins with addressing Iran and Syria. These two regimes are allowing terrorists and insurgents to use their territory to move in and out of Iraq. Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops. We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq.

President Bush has a point. It is true that terrorists are coming into Iraq from Syria, including Al Qaeda operatives. You have to note that Mr. Bush does not say Syria is enabling terrorists to come into Iran. He used the word "allowing" which might be an exaggeration since Syria claims to have scaled up patrols on this mostly desert border. The US Military in November had also declared that there was no evidence that Syria was enabling terrorist movements into Iraq.

The claim against Iran is a bit more curious. It is also based on a basic truth. the truth is that there are many indicators that many of the Shiite Militias in Iraq are allied with Iran. What is curious is that these same militias are the backbone of the Al Mailiki government which Mr. Bush wants to send 21,500 more young blood to "aid". If you are going to demonise Iran for these activities you have to demonise its allies too, don't you. This is not to argue that Iran should support or not support militancy in Iraq. However, as we know Saudi Arabia is also aiding the Sunnis which are also attacking US troops.

It makes it seem like Mr. Bush has thrown the Syria-Iran angle into his "plan" for another reason. In the speech he also talked about working "with others to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating the region". It seems clear then that he is again resorting to the methods used for pushing America into war in Iraq. In the previous paragraph he talks about an intention to "(address) Syria and Iran". This was in the context of border policing and the movement of material to fighters in Iraq. In the next he ties it to nuclear weapons.

Some might say this is a legitimate game. Many have argued that the real threat from Iran is not that it will nuke Tel Aviv but that with nukes it will have leverage to spread its brand of Shia Islamism. In this sense, it is legitimate to try to connect the dots. The problem with this is that Iran is NOT responsible for the situation in Iraq. It is Mr. Bush who has put this festering sore in Iraq on the world.

If Iran did not have a nuclear enrichment programme, and was not supporting its kin in Iraq, Iraq will still very likely be a mess because , at risk of repeating cliches, the situation in Iraq is one of unresolved national questions. It requires political settlement. It is simply hypocritical to think that Iran will not act to help its kin in Iraq consolidate their power.

Mr. Bush created this terrible situation in which American troops are being hit, not just by attacks from Iranian supported militia but also those receiving aid from the Saudis who remain American allies.

President Bush seems to be making a Machiavellian play here. Since he is beleaguered in the Iranian front and completely bereft of popular support at home, he is attempting to rally support by ratcheting up the conflict with an enemy most people can identify against. This is where the deceit comes in. Iran and Iraq are not tied.

In case you were thinking that this was just rhetoric, you did not listen to the news this morning. Reuters is reporting that US forces have attacked the Iranian Consulate in Arbil, Northern Iraq. The Iranians reported this, and five Iranian officials were taken.

Military actions taken against the embassy of another nation could be an act of aggression. Attacking the embassy of any nation is virtually tantamount to attacking that nation. Has the military action against Iran started?

In December the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier group arrived in the Persian Gulf. The USS John C. Stennis strike group will deploy this month and will put an additional 5000 US sailors into the region. We are witnessing a surge which has until now been interpreted as a show of power. At this moment it could be interpreted that the US is going to take several military actions against Iran and Syria and the US is aiming to secure the Gulf in pre-emption of any Iranian plans to retaliate through Naval operations.

If this is true it would appear that the preliminary conditions for the full-scale attack of Iran are being set. Some analysts think that air assets could also be mobilised in short order. These could be used along the borders Iraq shares with Iran and Syria.

Given that US ground forces are reportedly stretched, it does not seem that major combat operations against Iran are about to begin. This scaling up of military might against Iran might well be a gambit to get the Iranians to attack. Someone called it an attempt to spark a Gulf of Tonkin incident.

It could also be creating an excuse to create a real military mission in Iraq where none exists. If the US goes after Iran, it is predictable that the Shiite militias in Iraq will scale up action against the US. This would probably create the conditions for mobilising popular and military support for scaling up US military presence in Iraq and create a real military mission where none exists now.

What is clear is that Mr. Bush has chosen to escalate the conflict with Iran. We can only watch and see what unfolds.

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