Tyranny of certainty

If you are right, you are simply right. Right?

That is often the case. In many of the issues that confront us in this life, there are correct answers, and correct courses of action. At the same time, and on the other hand, there are so many other issues in which right is unknowable or unattainable.

I knew a guy, a Hedge Fund manager who during the dot-com bubble took a strong line against dot-com stocks. His fund was doing well, but he was under-performing compared to other fund managers. Despite the fact that he was doing well, his fund was shrinking because investors actually started pulling out. He was saved by the stock market bust, and even though he did better than other funds in the time following he has learnt an important lesson. The right thing to do is always subject to reality.

The Bush Presidency also illustrates this well. I do believe that George W. Bush will rather do the right thing as he knows it and believes it. In fact he has been known for his resoluteness in the choices he makes. Stories abound that he really believed that America will be safer for removing Saddam, and invading Iraq was the way to go. He believes now that America must not be defeated in Iraq. The problem is that, because he thought he was right to go after those things, he now retains belief that he is right. If he was right then, he is right now, isn't he? Talk about the tyranny of certainty!

Facts are necessary but are not sufficient for the discovery of what is right. Still you really can not be right if the facts are not on your side. I might consider myself a woman but the fact is that I am a man. I will not be right to believe I am a woman. This seems silly and obvious, right? What about the fact that we often face hard cold contradictory facts but still insist we are right. It is easy to be that way too. Sometimes the facts only appear to be contradictory to one's position. Some other times, we can actually change the facts to match what we want.

Up to this moment I have assumed that being right and being certain are the same thing. I mean, how can you be certain if you don't think you are right? There are words to describe people are certain even when they know they are wrong. Denial, schizophrenic, deluded and dishonest are a few.

Voltaire said all that time ago that "doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd". Complete certainty is rare in the thinking person. Almost every time you feel certain of something, uncertainty creeps into your mind questioning that very certainty. How really can one be right? Is it what is right for the majority, or what is right for now, or even what will be right forever? Is it what is factual, or what is moral or what has been decreed by God or man? How can you even be certain about your own certainty.

Certainty is never as tyrannical as when reality contradicts you. You know you are right but you can not prove it, or others can not see it or accept it. Imagine what it would have been like being Galileo. He would have looked at the horizon and seen the curve of the earth. He would have been so certain that he might have started questioning his own sanity except when looking at the damn horizon. He would have been derided in the market. Even family members would have changed the topic when he started on this topic. Now, 500 years on, he looks so right .

At least he was right. What about those who were so wrong and found wrong? There were those who wereso sure, so certain about the Iraq War. Almost every single thing those guys said would happen has been wrong but they still remain completely certain. Unlike Galileo, they would look so stupidly wrong 500 years on. There were people who were right, who almost exactly predicted the current state of affairs but they were never as certain as the people who were wrong. Go figure. Oh the tyranny of certainty!

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