Future State: Non-polar, multiregional world

The prequel to this article is this one, which sought to argue for preserving international stability based on a unipolar world under American hegemony ( a brutal term for sure). This article flows from the comment thread of the previous in which the focus turned to the stability of American hegemony and the international order.

It is not very controvertible that the international system is inherently unstable. Stability here refers not just to peace and order, under a rules-based system but also the determination of the fulcrum point at which conflicting or contrasting powers, interests and blocs are balanced against each other but also against the interests and goals of individual nations.

The loss of stability manifests not only in war but also in general lawlessness. States do as they desire and the international system is a jungle where not only the strongest survive but also the most brutal.

From this perspective, stability is an end in itself, and an imperfect system that is known is more desirable than an utopia that is not just unknown but unknowable and uncertain.

This does not however mean that the world must remain exactly the same as it is. It is not an argument for a reactionary state of affairs in the world either. Interests, power and alliances shift all the time, as they must in the flux of human existence.

At this point we must look at and entertain alternatives to the unipolar world, and even to the polar world. While the previous article argues for preserving the American hegemony, this one examines the future state of the world order , and therefore examines alternatives to American hegemony.

Borrowing a Six Sigma tool, we take the present state of the world and try to project to a future state over iterations. For the sake of brevity, we will not look too deeply into mapping the current state of the international order since that is well known, and since the prequel looked at the bottomline of the current state.

What are the factors that will inevitably realign the world? What is happening now at a high-level that could bring the world to a new state?

1. Nuclear Proliferation: The New York Times reported today that the International Atomic Energy Agency assesses that over forty nations now have the means and knowledge to build nuclear weapons. We know about Iran and North Korea, the ones that the US Presidential hyperphone has placed attention on. But while you were away (or while your attention was) the probability has increased that Japan, Turkey, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa will also seek the bomb. For as long as having nuclear power will give real advantages to the countries which seek them, every new nation that acquires them will change the dynamics and alignment of power in the world.

2. Globalisation: One of the least spotlighted by-products of globalisation is the deepening of financial markets worldwide. The Asian crises of the lat 1990s was blamed on globalisation and dependence on foreign capital. What has emerged since then is that emerging markets have come to depend less on established financial markets than they ever did. Many Chinese and Malaysian firms now choose to list on the Sydney Stock Exchange. Johannesburg is increasingly capturing the imaginations of capital-hungry African firms.

This is an example that typifies how globalisation, in various forms, influences world power in subtle ways that eventually influence the alignment of things in significant ways.

3. European Union: The European Union is the first peaceful political and economic integration of documented human history. The European agenda is a series of shared economic, political, legal, judicial, military and geographical platforms that will eventually lead to a loose confederation of states. It is well known that the European Union is a campaign to provide a counterweight to America. What is less closely explored is how the rest of the countries of the world have to change to deal with a unifying Europe. A country that trades with Bulgaria will have a lot of adjusting to do compared to just two weeks ago. Whether the European project eventually succeeds or not, the existence of the European bloc, its expansion and internal-external dynamics will change the way the world is aligned.

4. BRIC: Brazil, Russia, India and China are the emerging regional powerhouses that are arriving in the rarified spheres of world leadership. Their economic impact on the world has been well documented starting with their success in pushing for fair trade concessions from the rich world at the level of the World Trade Organisation. China and Russia lead the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which right now focuses on cooperation on cooperation for regional security but one which could morph into a military enforcer, the likes of NATO, especially with the likes of Iran and Syria knocking on the doors, seeking membership. China has made a big play towards securing the resources, markets and potential of the rest of the emerging world, pursuing a sweetheart foreign policy in places like Africa and Latin America. India has come to this game too more recently and even Brazil has made a huge play towards securing the resources it needs to sustain its growth. South-South trade is projected to grow looking into the future, and this changes the destinies of whole regions.

5. Emergence of Africa: Africa, the world's basket case is waking up. The wars are ending. The neo-colonial ties and neo-imperialist deadweights are being shed. Democracy and good governance is on the radar. There are two things that will count to give Africa a voice. The progressive internal decay of the Arab League, which will serve to promote intra-African cooperation and unity. The realisation of European powers, chief of which Britain, that African progress is necessary for the long-term security and well-being of Europe. The emergence of the BRIC-which could become BRISC or BRINC (one of South Africa and Nigeria will emerge as the latest regional economic power)- means that the world's richest continent in natural resources is about to get a bargaining voice, and the prices of natural resources will remain high for long enough to get African economies restarted. Other factors like the African Peer Review Mechanism, the emergence of Africa on Hedge Fund radar, and other factors are also good indicators. There are not enough statistics now to show that Africa is about to get a voice in the international order, but it is clear that sooner or later Africa will come to international force.

6. Migration: This factor would normally get discussed under globalisation but since its impact is understated, it gets the full treatment here. In every rich nation today, immigration is a heated issue that is touching as fundamentally as any on how a modern industrial secular nation defines itself and sets boundaries on its identity and citizenry. The globalisation of labour might be lagging behind that of funds or goods and services, but this one changes societies by a whole lot more and will ultimately change how nations will act. Just as an example, we could take Britain and its South Asian throng of immigrants many of which have contributed to the country's recent prosperity but whom are under the spotlight for those among them who are sympathetic to Islamic extremists. Indications are already emerging that this will affect the way Britain projects its power in the world. A lot has been said about the Jewish lobby in America. We will see across the world, several powerful groups within different nations will affect the foreign policy and national politics of nations. Migration, as has been mentioned before, will also condition how the European Union deals with Africa, and how America deals with Mexico.

7. Religion: Someone said this will be the communism-the ideological clash of the 21st century- and it is hard to agree without buying into the ideas of those who seek grand scale religious clashes. The evidence is there that there are millions of Muslims and Christians who see religion as central to their life and to what determines life on our planet in our age. They link all the challenged of our time either to their own religious beliefs or to the religious belief of others. These groups are the protagonists in the conflicts emerging from the proliferation of terrorist groups and the sometimes wild responses to them.

8. Bushian Radicalism: The Bush Doctrine, Unilateralism, the weakening of ties with European allies, the abandonment of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, the subversion of international cooperation platforms including treaties and the United Nations are leading to the denigration of American power and its ability to influence the world.

9. The denigration of American power: Imperial overstretch is emerging. Bush's tough talk might not be the cause, but is a pointer to the fact that America can not bomb the world to shape and is limited in the results it can achieve when it flexes its muscles. Some even now debate the question of whether America is truly a superpower given the massive failures of its attempt to use its power to get the world it wants and seeks.

10. Demographics: The composition of the world is changing. The majority of people live in the Third World today, but that composition will change seriously as population in Africa, Latin America and Asia continues to grow. The rich, powerful world is facing serious declines in population growth. There is no doubt that the military powers of the West will have huge shortfalls in fighting men in a couple of decades and this will change the choices these countries will make. Another change that will be brought by changing demographics is the nature of societies.

11. The Asian century: We have heard about the Asian century, the one in which China, Japan, South Korea, India, Singapore etc. will bring the whole continent of Asia to prominence and to power. There are indications that the historical events and current rivalries that have divided Asia are being bridged. India and China have taken the choice of cooperation instead of rivalry in their search for growth and development. Japan is in the process of finding rapprochement with China. Asia is in the process of change and they will have a strong voice in the international system as time passes.

A close look at all these factors will reveal one factor that is common to all these; the trend towards regional cooperation and power consolidation. The world is becoming multi-regional. This is not about geopolitics which is a field that basically puts strong faith in historical forces. This is about the emerging redundance of a world of polarity, to one in which no state can project its power disproportionately.

Factors that will act against regional clusterisation:

1. Angloworld/Commonwealth: Britain stays close with America because language and history bind them together. As does Canada, Australia, Ireland and others. As nations like South Africa, India, Malaysia and Nigeria progress the British Commonwealth is transforming from a club of tea-drinkers to a real global power bloc and this also related to its emergence as a league of democracies. Wild Prediction: The British Commonwealth and the United States to become somewhat aligned in the future, whether on certain cooperation platforms or in terms of full American membership.

2. American imperialism: America is right now trying to create a world where nations friendly to it hold regional sway. It bets a lot, for example on Israel and Iraq emerging as pro-American clients in the Middle-East. America is encouraging Japan to re-arm and emerge as a counterweight to China. America may have lost Latin America but it has often acted to undermine Mercosur for example. The policy of triangulating within Europe is also clear as it tries to push Atlantists in Europe to slow the march of a united Europe. America wants to divide regions and use nations friendly to it to dictate regional agendas.

The future state of the world will be one in which regional socio-economic integration will combine with spreading global prosperity to limit the ability of any superpower to influence beyond its direct sphere of influence. No clearer indicator of this trend exists than Latin America where America has lost the power to dictate the agenda, and control the action. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Venezuela will do much more to direct that region more than America can ever hope for again. The same will occur in Asia, the Middle East and Europe much less. Oil-producing nations like Angola will in the coming decades be able to tell the United States; "accept our terms or f---k off" as China, Brazil, India and the EU continue to strongly demand natural resources while offering fairer, more unilateral terms of engagement.

If China emerges as the world's new superpower as some say it will, it will not be able to influence the world beyond its own direct regional sphere. In the bold new world there will be no superpowers but many regional and multilateral blocs that wield power and influence.

America's goal of encouraging regional powers to emerge will happen but it will not be in a way that allows it to wield influence over regions far away. America will still be very powerful, but it will not be a superpower. Maybe a maxipower.

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